Cellar-dwellers face off again in Bucs-Nats clash

Baseball Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh lefty Paul Maholm can make it two straight wins for the Pirates and end his own four-decision skid tonight, when the Washington Nationals return to PNC Park for the middle test of a three-game weekend series.

The Pirates at least stalled a recent slide of five losses in six games in Friday's opener, when Garrett Jones hit two doubles and drove in three runs in an 8-5 win.

Ryan Doumit homered among three hits for the Pirates. Pedro Alvarez drove in two runs, while Jose Tabata and Ronny Cedeno each had two hits.

Bucs starter Zach Duke (7-12) lasted five-plus innings, giving up four runs, five hits and three walks while fanning five for the win.

Danny Espinosa hit his first career home run for the Nationals, who have lost three straight. Adam Dunn and Justin Maxwell each drove in a run in defeat.

Livan Hernandez (9-10) was pounded for eight runs on eight hits and two walks in just 4 1/3 innings to take the loss for Washington.

Maholm, the eighth overall pick in the 2003 draft, picked up his seventh win of the season on Aug. 3 after a six-inning effort in a 7-6 defeat of Cincinnati. He's 0-4 in five starts since, however, allowing 25 runs on 40 hits in 25 innings while his earned run average has climbed from 4.59 to 5.18.

He retired just 10 batters in his most recent outing, allowing nine hits and eight runs against the Chicago Cubs in a 14-2 embarrassment at Wrigley Field on Monday.

The Mississippi native has faced the Nationals six times in 154 big-league starts but has yet to record a win against them, losing three decisions while posting a 5.30 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Maholm is 5-8 in 14 home starts in 2010.

Fellow lefty John Lannan seeks his first career defeat of the Pirates for Washington as well this evening.

The Long Beach, NY native is 0-3 in five previous outings against Pittsburgh, including a no-decision in Washington's 7-5 home win on June 9, when he was tagged for 10 hits and five runs in 4 2/3 innings.

Lannan has gone 4-3 in eight starts since, however, to even his season record at 6-6. He beat the St. Louis Cardinals, 4-2, Sunday at Nationals Park after allowing one run on eight hits over 7 2/3 innings.

He is 4-3 in 10 road starts this season.

Washington swept a three-game set from the Pirates back in June and had won five in a row in this overall series prior to Friday's setback.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.